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BGonline.org Forums
Three Rules
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Three Rules (Mr Majestyk)
Date: Thursday, 24 May 2012, at 8:39 p.m.
Ok, here's what I have, and likewise will appreciate seeing which three rules of thumb you had in mind. Or what I've not considered. There's more than one way to tackle a problem.
(1) Reduce the number and power of your opponent's rolls. Can't let Opp win with a 6 out -- if Blue doesn't hit, 16/36 numbers (any 6 plus 3-3 3-4 and 3-5 run. So Blue must hit 2/1*. If Blue picks up the dice now having played one ace, Opp has entering 1's and 4-5 to hit back. 1-1 is a killer. 20/19(2) takes care of 1-1. 9/8 exchanges 4-5 for 4-4.
20/19(2) 9/8 2/1* gives Opp an excellent 1-6 and 4-4, a good 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 4-2 4-3 4-5, a decent 1-5 (hits but blots) and a very bad 4-6 (enters but blots).
Compare 9/7 5/4 2/1*: Opp has a superb 1-6 (hitting twice), an excellent 4-3, a good 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 4-2 4-4 4-5, a decent 1-5, and a bad 4-6. Compare 10/7 2/1*: Opp has a superb 1-6, an excellent 4-3 4-5 and 4-6, a good 1-1 1-2 1-3 1-4 4-2 4-4, and a decent 1-5.
It's true that if left alone, White has several bad numbers: 5-2 5-1 4-2 4-1 expose a second blot. So if blue does not hit, the anchor should stay on the 20 point to block 5-2 4-2 and 2-2. Slotting anything or breaking the 10 point doesn't look right, so 9/5 appears to be the best non-hitting play.
I'd compare these plays about like this:
Play Superb Excellent Good Decent Bad Very bad (all from White's point of view) 20/19(2) 9/8 2/1* 0 3 13 2 16 2 9/7 6/5 2/1* 2 2 12 2 16 2 10/7 2/1* 2 6 10 2 16 0 9/5 1 15 4 8 0 8 (2) Improve your own numbers. Blue wants to cover the 4 point and the ace point. Suppose Blue is not hit, or White enters on the 4 point but does not escape.
20/19(2) 9/8 2/1* gives Blue 33 numbers that attack the 4 point, including 8 numbers that make the 4 point, and 22 numbers (not including those that make the 4 point) that make the ace point.
9/7 6/5 2/1* gives Blue 31 numbers that attack the 4 point, including 9 that make it, and, remarkably, only 16 additional numbers (4-X, 2-2 6-2 and 6-5) that make the acepoint but don't make the 9 point.
10/7 2/1* give Blue 35 numbers that attack the 4 point, including 15 numbers that make the point, and 17 additional numbers that make the ace point. But Blue won't be able to use those good numbers as often as after the other two plays, since only 3 of White's 20 entering numbers don't hit 1 or 2 of Blue's 4 blots. After 20/19(2) 9/8 2/1*, eight of White's entering numbers miss.
Other plays? With 20/19(2) 2/1*, 6/5 is worse than 9/8 -- same number of rolls attack the 4, fewer that make it, fewer additional numbers that make the ace point. I can't see splitting the 20 point, giving up the nice blocking 10 point, switching points or playing 9/6, so I don't see any other contenders.
For a third rule, I did remember to "remember the cube," but that mainly makes 10/7 2/1* much too big a play.
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