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Contact bearoff is not so easy

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 4:33 a.m.

In Response To: Contact bearoff is not so easy (Taper_Mike)

Thanks Mike for the money game rollouts of the alternate, money game, end-game reference positions with White holding the cube.

Here are six similar also money game rollouts with Blue holding the cube. Since Blue is on roll, the figures of interest are those for No Double.

(A) White 57 Blue 32 Position ID: 2+4OAAAdAAAQAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -0.2005)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.2474 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.4242 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.5758 3. Double, take +0.2237 -0.2005 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (25.8%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.6237 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3763 0.0000 0.0000 +0.2474 +0.4242 Standard error 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0023 0.0040 Player White owns 4-cube 0.6245 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3755 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4981 +0.2237 Standard error 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0048 0.0084 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921275339 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (B) White 57 Blue 34 Position ID: 2+4OAAAuAAAQAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -0.2863)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.1728 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.3497 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.6503 3. Double, take +0.0634 -0.2863 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (30.6%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.5864 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.4136 0.0000 0.0000 +0.1728 +0.3497 Standard error 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0021 0.0034 Player White owns 4-cube 0.5886 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.4114 0.0000 0.0000 +0.3546 +0.0634 Standard error 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0011 0.0000 0.0000 0.0045 0.0076 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921166317 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (C) White 57 Blue 56 Position ID: 2+4OAAAOAAAYAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -1.3440)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity -0.7059 Cubeful equities: 1. No double -0.6560 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +1.6560 3. Double, take -2.0000 -1.3440 Proper cube action: No redouble, beaver (44.8%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.1470 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8530 0.0000 0.0000 -0.7059 -0.6560 Standard error 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0018 0.0024 Player White owns 4-cube 0.1632 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8368 0.0000 0.0000 -1.3474 -2.0000 Standard error 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921166317 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

(D) White 57 Blue 30 Position ID: 2+4OAAANAAAIAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -0.0879)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.3704 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.5919 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.4081 3. Double, take +0.5040 -0.0879 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (17.7%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.6852 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3148 0.0000 0.0000 +0.3704 +0.5919 Standard error 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0029 0.0068 Player White owns 4-cube 0.6852 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3148 0.0000 0.0000 +0.7406 +0.5040 Standard error 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0015 0.0000 0.0000 0.0058 0.0093 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921166317 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (E) White 57 Blue 34 Position ID: 2+4OAABGAAAIAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -0.1657)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.2858 Cubeful equities: 1. No double +0.4824 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +0.5176 3. Double, take +0.3167 -0.1657 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (24.2%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.6429 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3571 0.0000 0.0000 +0.2858 +0.4824 Standard error 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0013 0.0000 0.0000 0.0026 0.0054 Player White owns 4-cube 0.6426 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3574 0.0000 0.0000 +0.5703 +0.3167 Standard error 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0014 0.0000 0.0000 0.0056 0.0085 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921166317 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] (F) White 57 Blue 54 Position ID: 2+4OAAAGAAAMAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE Alert: wrong double ( -1.6224)! [very bad] Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity -0.6064 Cubeful equities: 1. No double -0.5408 2. Double, pass +1.0000 +1.5408 3. Double, take -2.1632 -1.6224 Proper cube action: No redouble, take (51.3%) Rollout details Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player Blue owns 2-cube 0.1968 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8032 0.0000 0.0000 -0.6064 -0.5408 Standard error 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0018 0.0024 Player White owns 4-cube 0.1968 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.8032 0.0000 0.0000 -1.2127 -2.1632 Standard error 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0009 0.0000 0.0000 0.0036 0.0096 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 921166317 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Contact bearoff is not so easy
  Klaus Evers -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 2:38 p.m.
  • Contact bearoff is not so easy
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 2 June 2012, at 3:11 p.m.
  • Contact bearoff is not so easy
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 2:26 a.m.
    • Contact bearoff is not so easy
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 4:33 a.m.
  • Contact bearoff is not so easy
    mochy -- Sunday, 3 June 2012, at 10:23 a.m.
  • Rollout surprise
    Klaus Evers -- Monday, 4 June 2012, at 5:19 a.m.
    • Rollout surprise - MG RO
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 4 June 2012, at 10:23 p.m.
      • 3-away, 7-away — XGR++ Rollout
        Taper_Mike -- Tuesday, 5 June 2012, at 2:45 a.m.