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DMP -- may be your last decision of the game

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:20 p.m.

In Response To: DMP -- may be your last decision of the game (Chuck Bower)

The 5 is forced. Then it's a question of whether to play 20/18, 9/7 or 5/3.

Gammons don't matter, so 20/18 might be best as it maintains the most contact. White is 17/36 to hit, although I'm not sure if white will even want to hit if she can. So we can might be able to move out to the 18 "for free", and if white rolls small and we cover next roll we get extra chances.

But I'm going to go with the saner-looking 5/3 - slotting the 18 turns 42 51 and 22 from awkward rolls into nice tempo hit rolls. 5/3 gives white a couple of awkward rolls - all the small rolls should leave her still sitting on the midpoint giving blue a 1/6 chance to hit, and consecutive small rolls may force her to leave a direct shot. 41 and 51 are immediately awkward. Meanwhile we've built a nice prime if we manage to get a shot.

I'm not sure what the appeal of 9/7 might be.

Messages In This Thread

• DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 12:06 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 12:35 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
      Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 2:10 p.m.
      • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
        Steve Mellen -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:19 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--Var1
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:55 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--Var2
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:58 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game--original pos., XG++ analysis
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:00 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    ah_clem -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:20 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 3:54 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
      Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:31 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    Prince Barlow -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 4:58 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 14 June 2012, at 5:45 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game-- RO
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 1:19 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game-- RO
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 16 June 2012, at 5:04 p.m.
  • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game -- var3
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:07 p.m.
    • DMP -- may be your last decision of the game -- var4
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 5:09 p.m.