In position 1, it's apparently worth the risk of an inflexible position to keep the pressure on White's rear points.
I don't know if Bill Calton is reading this but breaking anchor is generally the wrong idea at this early stage of a holding game when the race is about even. As long as you haven't reached the stage where you're burying checkers or breaking your board, your racing vig will still be there next turn, so there's no urgency to run; running just exposes you to a potential attack. Instead, work on strengthening your forward position in preparation for hitting a shot. There will be ample time to run later after your opponent has moved most of her checkers past your anchor and eliminated most of the danger of an attack.
Note that if you have a sizable racing lead in a holding game (not the case here), then you may consider breaking anchor early, especially if you have a big board advantage.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 124
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--BBC-A-AbbB---cbcbBa---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 6/2 | eq: -0.279 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.25% (G:4.88% B:0.05%)
57.75% (G:4.59% B:0.15%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 6/2 | eq: -0.309 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.28% (G:4.25% B:0.04%)
58.72% (G:4.75% B:0.23%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.318 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.75% (G:4.06% B:0.04%)
59.25% (G:4.12% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 8/4 | eq: -0.328 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.48% (G:4.55% B:0.06%)
59.52% (G:5.06% B:0.20%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 10/6 8/2 | eq: -0.337 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.44% (G:4.62% B:0.06%)
59.56% (G:5.01% B:0.21%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 5/1 | eq: -0.385 (-0.105) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.64% (G:3.48% B:0.04%)
61.36% (G:5.73% B:0.26%) | |
|
| 7. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 5/1 | eq: -0.387 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.63% (G:3.82% B:0.04%)
61.37% (G:6.02% B:0.29%) | |
|
| 8. | XG Roller+ | 21/15 8/4 | eq: -0.437 (-0.158) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.82% (G:9.29% B:0.28%)
64.18% (G:13.56% B:0.46%) | |
|
| 9. | XG Roller+ | 21/15 10/6 | eq: -0.451 (-0.172) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35.31% (G:10.38% B:0.32%)
64.69% (G:14.35% B:0.48%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 121 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 124
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B--BBC-A-A-dB---cbcbBa---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 6/2 | eq: -0.343 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.24% (G:2.03% B:0.02%)
59.76% (G:3.36% B:0.11%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 6/2 | eq: -0.344 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.16% (G:1.88% B:0.01%)
59.84% (G:3.46% B:0.15%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.349 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.05% (G:1.98% B:0.02%)
59.95% (G:3.26% B:0.12%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 10/6 8/2 | eq: -0.370 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.40% (G:2.01% B:0.02%)
60.60% (G:3.51% B:0.13%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 8/4 | eq: -0.376 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.25% (G:1.90% B:0.01%)
60.75% (G:3.64% B:0.13%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 21/11 | eq: -0.410 (-0.068) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.83% (G:5.88% B:0.08%)
62.17% (G:6.81% B:0.15%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 126
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--B-BBC-A-AbbB---cbcbBa---:0:0:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 8/4 | eq: -0.327 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.36% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)
59.64% (G:4.79% B:0.18%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 10/4 6/2 | eq: -0.334 (-0.006) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.20% (G:4.20% B:0.07%)
59.80% (G:4.89% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 10/6 8/2 | eq: -0.347 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.85% (G:4.48% B:0.08%)
60.15% (G:4.92% B:0.20%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 13/9 13/7 | eq: -0.348 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.00% (G:3.70% B:0.07%)
60.00% (G:3.63% B:0.19%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
 
| | White is Player 1
score: 0
pip: 98 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 87
score: 0
Blue is Player 2 |
|
| XGID=-AABbBCBB-B-------accbb-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in XG Roller+ |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.35% (G: 1.84% B: 0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.65% (G: 0.52% B: 0.01%) |
| |
| Cubeless Equities |
| No Double: | +0.547 |
| Double: | +1.125 |
| |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No Double: | +0.930 (-0.066) |
| Double/Take: | +0.996 |
| Double/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.004) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Dmitriy has explained the principle behind this sort of position more than once. Maybe now I'll finally remember it.
  
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-Ba-D-C---dD---cBcb--a--:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 | eq: +0.095 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.27% (G:13.75% B:0.50%)
47.73% (G:11.18% B:0.40%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 6/5 | eq: +0.056 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.17% (G:11.76% B:0.45%)
47.83% (G:11.50% B:0.37%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 | eq: +0.030 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.42% (G:11.87% B:0.39%)
48.58% (G:12.37% B:0.43%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant 1:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaB--D-C---dD---cBcb--a--:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 | eq: +0.177 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.63% (G:14.41% B:0.59%)
45.37% (G:11.22% B:0.40%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 8/2* | eq: +0.143 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.77% (G:14.78% B:0.56%)
46.23% (G:12.09% B:0.45%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 6/5 | eq: +0.137 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.68% (G:13.57% B:0.53%)
46.32% (G:11.83% B:0.38%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-Ba-D-C---dD---cBcba----:0:0:1:51:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7 | eq: +0.044 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.29% (G:12.37% B:0.46%)
48.71% (G:10.93% B:0.41%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/8 6/5 | eq: +0.025 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.25% (G:10.89% B:0.38%)
48.75% (G:11.04% B:0.39%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 8/2 | eq: -0.008 (-0.052) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.36% (G:11.62% B:0.38%)
49.64% (G:12.67% B:0.48%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21