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Bearing Off With 33, Closed Board, Opponent On Bar

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:48 p.m.

In Response To: Bearing Off With 33, Closed Board, Opponent On Bar (Paul Weaver)

Eight rollout results are posted below, but only seven are distinct. Notice Blue's gammon % and BG % in each position, to help you in your future estimates.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aBBBCCC--------a---cbbbbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +0.989 Player: Opponent: 97.75% (G:3.85% B:0.03%) 2.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.987...+0.990) - [100.0%] Duration: 3.9 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +0.977 (-0.012) Player: Opponent: 97.06% (G:4.56% B:0.03%) 2.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.975...+0.978) - [0.0%] Duration: 6.9 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 95 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aBBBCCCa-------a---bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +1.176 Player: Opponent: 96.79% (G:24.99% B:0.03%) 3.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.002 (+1.174...+1.177) - [100.0%] Duration: 12.7 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +1.166 (-0.009) Player: Opponent: 98.12% (G:20.86% B:0.04%) 1.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.165...+1.167) - [0.0%] Duration: 7.1 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

The break-even point occurs between the two positions below.

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 92 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aBBBCCC---a----a---bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +1.109 Player: Opponent: 98.01% (G:15.41% B:0.04%) 1.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.109...+1.109) - [100.0%] Duration: 40.2 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +1.108 (-0.001) Player: Opponent: 97.08% (G:17.67% B:0.03%) 2.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.108...+1.109) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 07 seconds 1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 93 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=aBBBCCC--a-----a---bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +1.130 Player: Opponent: 96.97% (G:20.07% B:0.03%) 3.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.129...+1.130) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +1.128 (-0.002) Player: Opponent: 98.02% (G:17.25% B:0.04%) 1.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.000 (+1.128...+1.128) - [0.0%] Duration: 41.9 seconds 1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

I presented these two to give Stick something to think about.

White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 122 2 point match Crawford pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=bBBBCCC----------bbcbbb---:0:0:1:33:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +2.197 Player: Opponent: 94.59% (G:65.27% B:2.85%) 5.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.194...+2.201) - [100.0%] Duration: 12.9 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +2.179 (-0.018) Player: Opponent: 96.46% (G:62.51% B:2.53%) 3.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.176...+2.183) - [0.0%] Duration: 10.8 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 134 2 point match Crawford pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=bBBBCCCa---------bbbbbb---:0:0:1:33:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +2.592 Player: Opponent: 97.34% (G:82.28% B:1.85%) 2.66% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.589...+2.596) - [100.0%] Duration: 20.6 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +2.566 (-0.027) Player: Opponent: 95.05% (G:83.23% B:2.12%) 4.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.561...+2.570) - [0.0%] Duration: 24.2 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

When White has two on the roof, the break-even point occurs between these two positions. Evidently, the one-pip crossover is a big deal. Does anyone remember the definition of "crossover count" that was presented on this site in December 2010?

White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 122 2 point match Crawford pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=bBBBCCC----------bbcbbb---:0:0:1:33:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +2.197 Player: Opponent: 94.59% (G:65.27% B:2.85%) 5.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.194...+2.201) - [100.0%] Duration: 12.9 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +2.179 (-0.018) Player: Opponent: 96.46% (G:62.51% B:2.53%) 3.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+2.176...+2.183) - [0.0%] Duration: 10.8 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 123 2 point match Crawford pip: 57 score: 0 Blue is Player 1 XGID=bBBBCCC----------bcbbbb---:0:0:1:33:0:1:1:2:10 Blue to play 33 1. Rollout1 6/3(2) 6/Off eq: +2.366 Player: Opponent: 96.54% (G:71.77% B:2.76%) 3.46% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+2.365...+2.368) - [99.9%] Duration: 1 minute 43 seconds 2. Rollout1 6/Off 5/2 4/1 eq: +2.363 (-0.003) Player: Opponent: 94.70% (G:73.47% B:2.97%) 5.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+2.362...+2.365) - [0.1%] Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds 1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Bearing Off With 33, Closed Board, Opponent On Bar
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 12:54 a.m.
  • Bearing Off With 33, Closed Board, Opponent On Bar
    Stick -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 2:48 a.m.
    • Challenges for Stick
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 6:08 a.m.
  • Bearing Off With 33, Closed Board, Opponent On Bar
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:48 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Appear in Post Below
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 18 June 2012, at 4:50 p.m.