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Desperate times...

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 4:34 p.m.

In Response To: Desperate times... (Timothy Chow)

Hey look on the bright side -- you won't have a cube decision next turn.

Only three legal fives. Start by counting shots for each:

6/1* -- rolls containing {1,3,6} except 66, plus 22 and 55 hardaways = 28 hits.

13/8 -- rolls containing {3,6} plus {11,21,42,51,22,55} = 29 hits.

22/17 -- rolls containing {1,5} plus {32,64,44} (OK, 44 is blocked :) = 24 hits.

Is there a reason to choose a play which leaves more than the minimum number of shots? I doubt it's the non-hitting, midpoint stripping 13/8. Hitting on the acepoint does have the plus that (when missed) it pushes opp's back checker forward. However, now you still have a blot deep in opp's board with a gauntlet to run and you won't likely be able to hit opp until you cover the blot on your acepoint. Doesn't sound like compensating values to me.

Pottle's Rule

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