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DMP 41

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Tuesday, 26 June 2012, at 7:31 a.m.

In Response To: DMP 41 (Stick)

If Blue plays 7/6 7/3 then 44% of the time Blue's up 14 real pips next roll with about 84% GWC, and 55% of the time Blue's up about an average of 5 pips with about 73% GWC, for an average of GWC of about (38+40)= ~78%. Or better since Blue can close White out 10% of the time next turn, so (38+32+9) = 79%.

Blue should win a lot more often than that after 6/2*/1. Only 6-5 and 5-4 blot immediately and White still has to hit and escape. Even if White wins all of those, that's only 11%, and I doubt that other ways Blue can lose add up to to another 10% losses.

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