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Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 28 June 2012, at 3:20 p.m.

In Response To: Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls (Bill Phipps)

I'd be pretty cautious about this kind of calculation. PR's don't follow either a normal or a lognormal distribution, so converting between standard deviation and probability is a little dodgy.

But aside from that, retrospective statistical analysis of results, in an effort to prove some hypothesis that you've developed after seeing the data, is even more suspect. It's only a slight exaggeration to say that you can prove anything you want with this kind of approach.

Where I am headed with this to show what the odds are that Stick is really a 3.0 player who had a lucky run and posted a 2.3. I have been under the belief that there is very little chance of this happening.

I agree. But I would strongly oppose any attempt to use the existing data to quantify this statement. Any number you come up with would be highly suspect. But as soon as you come up with an actual number, people will quote that number as if it were gospel. Don't go there.

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