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Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls

Posted By: Bill Phipps
Date: Thursday, 28 June 2012, at 4:08 p.m.

In Response To: Bob Koca, ask not for whom the bell tolls (Timothy Chow)

I understand the point you are making about being wary of hypothesis formed after data results are in. If there were a pool of 1000 players and one of them had an outlier result, we are probably looking at the guy who got lucky, not the guy who cheated.

Here, however, we are realistically looking at a pool of 10-15 players that we would even be having this discussion about. If anyone else posted a 2.3 result, it would be dismissed out of hand as fluke or fraud.

Isn't it fair to frame the question as " what are the odds that one of the top 10 players had this result" instead of "what are the odds that Stick had this result" ? Then, we discount the data appropriately from there.

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