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World class

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 6 July 2012, at 10:54 p.m.

In Response To: World class (christian munk-christensen)

Christian wrote:

I'm thinking that if you can win 45 of 100 17-pointers against someone like Sander, Mochy or Falafel, then chances are you're pretty fuckin' awesome.

Recently, Bradley Sherman reported on rec.games.backgammon that he won 46 of 100 five-point matches against GNU. I'm not sure what settings he was using for GNU (I could ask if anyone cares), but if he can score 46% against GNU then I assume he can probably score similarly against a top human player. Now maybe you have some objections:

1. Maybe Bradley cherry-picked his results. I don't think this is the case. For example, he reported, "After 80 matches I was tied 40-40! I resisted the urge to post the results and went ahead with the full experimental plan, which is good science but bad for the ego."

2. A five-point match isn't the same as a 17-point match. This is true, although I note that Christian didn't specify the match length when he first tossed out the 45% figure.

3. Maybe Bradley really is world class. If you believe this then I guess I have no further rebuttal, but I'm guessing you're more likely to say, "Bradley who?" than to admit that he's world class.

Anyway, I tend to agree with David Rockwell that 45% is too loose a threshold, even for a 17-point match.

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