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Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 27 July 2012, at 7:30 p.m.

In Response To: Testing empirically backgammon rules of thumbs (Timothy Chow)

1 in 1000 would mean many and probably most of us have seen it. Also if the gammon chance is positive but small it would not be an overriding concern but could still lead to these positions.

The below position doesn't seem unusual. If trailer gets the hit he may have some agressive plays for the gammon to make in which knowing the extreme gammon value is important.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 91
8 point match
pip: 73
score: 6

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABBCBCb---B-------cccbb--:0:0:1:00:6:0:0:8:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.431% (G:0.794% B:0.007%) 76.531% (G:0.765% B:0.009%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.569% (G:0.454% B:0.010%) 23.469% (G:0.519% B:0.009%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5361 +1.4372
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.6675 (-0.0283)
Double/Take:+0.6958
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3042)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

3a 8a 4 cube gives about 1.3 gamon value which can easily come about after this possibly correct initial double with trailer having about 2% gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 96
8 point match
pip: 93
score: 5

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--bCC-C-CAAA-------bccbba-:0:0:1:00:5:0:0:8:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller+ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.021% (G:4.729% B:0.104%) 76.066% (G:5.138% B:0.125%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.979% (G:1.987% B:0.035%) 23.934% (G:1.930% B:0.036%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5511 +1.0858
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.7786 (-0.0051)
Double/Take:+0.7837
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2163)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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