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Why is it wrong to slot the barpoint here? -- variant progression

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 29 July 2012, at 4:39 p.m.

In Response To: Why is it wrong to slot the barpoint here? (DJansen)

I changed to unlimited/$, reran the original and then moved checkers (just one checker from the original, with one exception) to see how the equities changed. Here I list them in m/l order of discrepancy, from most in favor of run to most in favor of slot. In each case I also state what checker(s) I moved from the original position.

Original:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 169
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BC-C--AcC-b-c-e-B--aA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.0713
Player:
Opponent:
51.43% (G:13.65% B:0.53%)
48.57% (G:11.27% B:0.32%)
Conf.: ±0.0170 (+0.0543...+0.0884) - [99.1%]
Duration: 6 hours 52 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: +0.0423 (-0.0291)
Player:
Opponent:
51.49% (G:13.93% B:0.50%)
48.51% (G:14.72% B:0.42%)
Conf.: ±0.0167 (+0.0255...+0.0590) - [0.9%]
Duration: 6 hours 06 minutes
1 1008 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83819114
First 12 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Blue owns 20-point instead of 21-point:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BC-C--AcC-b-c-eB---aA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller++Bar/16eq: +0.0990
Player:
Opponent:
51.80% (G:12.46% B:0.35%)
48.20% (G:9.42% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/7eq: +0.0743 (-0.0247)
Player:
Opponent:
51.79% (G:13.35% B:0.43%)
48.21% (G:12.26% B:0.31%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Blot on 11 back to midpoint:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 171
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BC-C---cD-b-c-e-B--aA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller++Bar/16eq: -0.0219
Player:
Opponent:
48.76% (G:11.37% B:0.36%)
51.24% (G:10.43% B:0.25%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.0300 (-0.0081)
Player:
Opponent:
49.26% (G:12.31% B:0.41%)
50.74% (G:13.30% B:0.34%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Spare on 8-point back to midpoint:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 174
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BC-B--AcD-b-c-e-B--aA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout1Bar/22 13/7eq: +0.0210
Player:
Opponent:
50.88% (G:13.85% B:0.54%)
49.12% (G:15.30% B:0.47%)
Conf.: ±0.0165 (+0.0045...+0.0376) - [75.1%]
Duration: 7 hours 09 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/16eq: +0.0132 (-0.0078)
Player:
Opponent:
49.94% (G:12.54% B:0.43%)
50.06% (G:12.04% B:0.33%)
Conf.: ±0.0153 (-0.0020...+0.0285) - [24.9%]
Duration: 7 hours 56 minutes
1 1116 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 83819114
First 12 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

Spare on 7-point back to midpoint:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
pip: 176
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BB-C--AcD-b-c-e-B--aA:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/7eq: -0.0048
Player:
Opponent:
50.95% (G:12.36% B:0.42%)
49.05% (G:15.10% B:0.41%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/16eq: -0.0304 (-0.0256)
Player:
Opponent:
49.54% (G:11.13% B:0.35%)
50.46% (G:12.09% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

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