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problem at truncation -

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Monday, 30 July 2012, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: Stick vs Merriman: XG++ Data Makes No Sense (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel is right

The truncation is the issue. The fact XGR++ is wrong by 0.015 is much less of an issue for me than XGR++ Cubeful evaluations being 0.200 off the mark.

consider that position:




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
11 point match
pip: 45
score: 8

Blue is Player 1
XGID=cBBCCaC-----c------db-b---:1:1:1:00:8:0:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 96.00% (G:92.37% B:12.05%) 96.00% (G:92.37% B:12.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 4.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 4.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +1.411 +1.381
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.138
Redouble/Take:+1.215 (+0.077)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.138)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 64.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.04, MET: Kazaross XG2

3-ply gives 1.138 equity (1.416 cubeless), a RO gives 1.414

RO=Cubeless shows that cube is pretty much dead.

I will have to check that further in the cubeless -> cubefull conversion in 1-ply

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