Position 1. Looks like hitting is right. Not sure about the best deuce, but covering (7/5) looks bad.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 221 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=bbbBBABBB--Bb--Aac-cA-----:1:-1:1:24:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 11/9 | eq: +0.525 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.87% (G:37.93% B:13.06%)
39.13% (G:1.51% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.511...+0.540) - [49.1%]
Duration: 32 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 16/14 | eq: +0.524 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.90% (G:37.73% B:12.81%)
39.10% (G:1.47% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.509...+0.538) - [36.5%]
Duration: 29 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 15/13 | eq: +0.518 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.83% (G:37.56% B:12.62%)
39.17% (G:1.48% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.503...+0.533) - [14.2%]
Duration: 27 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 15/9 | eq: +0.501 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.91% (G:36.64% B:11.37%)
39.09% (G:1.59% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.488...+0.515) - [0.1%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 8/6 | eq: +0.492 (-0.033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.02% (G:36.92% B:12.84%)
39.98% (G:1.67% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.477...+0.508) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 00 second |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 15/13 11/7 | eq: +0.487 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.64% (G:36.39% B:11.19%)
39.36% (G:1.97% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.473...+0.501) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 7. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 7/5 | eq: +0.478 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.22% (G:37.05% B:14.63%)
41.78% (G:0.66% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.461...+0.496) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 54 seconds |
|
| 8. | Rollout1 | 20/14 | eq: +0.473 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.79% (G:35.65% B:9.85%)
39.21% (G:2.07% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.458...+0.487) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 9. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: +0.468 (-0.058) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.72% (G:36.33% B:12.77%)
41.28% (G:0.80% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.453...+0.482) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Position 2. White's timing is so good that she has a clear take; Blue should not double.
 
 
| | White is stick
score: 0
pip: 221 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is ray |
|
| XGID=bbbBBBBB---BbB--ac-cA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 59.68% (G:37.32% B:14.09%) | 57.74% (G:35.96% B:13.32%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 40.32% (G:1.06% B:0.04%) | 42.26% (G:0.68% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.697 | +1.281 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.969 | ±0.014 (+0.955..+0.983) |
| Double/Take: | +0.883 (-0.086) | ±0.044 (+0.839..+0.928) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.031) |
| |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take |
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 42.4% |
| Rollout details |
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 29 minutes 09 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Position 3. White's timing is not as good here as it was in Position 2. Big Pass.
 
| | White is stick
score: 0
pip: 219 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is ray |
|
| XGID=abcBBABBB--Bb--Aac-cA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.82% (G:39.27% B:11.54%) | 63.73% (G:38.80% B:10.62%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.18% (G:1.20% B:0.04%) | 36.27% (G:1.21% B:0.09%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.772 | +1.512 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +1.000 | ±0.067 (+0.933..+1.067) |
| Double/Take: | +1.203 (+0.203) | ±0.160 (+1.043..+1.363) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
| Rollout details |
64 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 50.0% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.3% |
| Duration: 58.0 seconds |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Position 4. If Blue is clever enough to not cover his 5pt, he can double; if he is not so clever, maybe he should wait. Lots of players are passing, so maybe Blue should double, even if he thinks he should cover his 5pt.
| | White is stick
score: 0
pip: 221 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is ray |
|
| XGID=bbbBBABBB--Bb--Aac-cA-----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 60.79% (G:37.52% B:12.50%) | 59.82% (G:36.90% B:12.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 39.21% (G:1.64% B:0.06%) | 40.18% (G:1.53% B:0.08%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.699 | +1.340 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +0.955 (-0.016) | ±0.011 (+0.945..+0.966) |
| Double/Take: | +0.971 | ±0.021 (+0.950..+0.991) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.029) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take |
| Rollout details |
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| |
| Double Decision confidence: | 90.7% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 99.7% |
| Duration: 1 hour 20 minutes |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Position 5. Blue can cover here, because White's timing is not as good.
| | White is stick
score: 0
pip: 219 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 118
score: 0
Blue is ray |
|
| XGID=abcBBABBB--Bb--Aac-cA-----:1:-1:1:24:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 24 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/5 | eq: +0.583 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.62% (G:38.06% B:10.69%)
36.38% (G:0.88% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.571...+0.595) - [96.3%]
Duration: 39 minutes 19 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 11/9 | eq: +0.566 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.40% (G:38.81% B:12.63%)
37.60% (G:1.69% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.551...+0.580) - [3.1%]
Duration: 40 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 15/13 | eq: +0.558 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.18% (G:38.77% B:12.43%)
37.82% (G:1.64% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.543...+0.574) - [0.5%]
Duration: 39 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 16/14 | eq: +0.555 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.06% (G:38.71% B:12.35%)
37.94% (G:1.66% B:0.07%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.541...+0.570) - [0.1%]
Duration: 38 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 20/16* 7/5 | eq: +0.515 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.95% (G:37.87% B:13.81%)
40.05% (G:0.79% B:0.04%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.500...+0.529) - [0.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03