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OLM Sa 08/04/12 ROLLOUT

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 4:38 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 08/04/12 ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

It's interesting that XG 4-ply evaluation is half-wrong here, since the rollout result isn't possible with best play.

For 11/6 9/3, we know from the "eq. +1.000" that XG 4-ply is doubling and passing next turn -- correctly, since the position is awkward.

For 11/5 9/4, we know that XG 4-ply is not doubling next roll, evaluating the position as Too Good. But that has to be a tiny mistake, since Blue can get another 0.001 EMG equity from an immediate Double/Pass.

Like XG 4-ply, Gnubg 4-ply evaluation (but not 2-ply) also says "Too Good" after 11/5 9/4.

Note that the "cubeless" win percentages of 94.04% after 11/6 9/3 and 97.10% after 11/5 9/4 are probably about right -- if no one ever doubled. However, cubeful, after 11/6 9/3, Blue wins 100%, and after 11/5 9/4 and a No Double next turn, Blue (as Gnubg 2-ply plays it) wins about 98.95% cubeful, including double-outs in about 95.1% of all games.

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