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BGonline.org Forums
3a 5a cube then play 22
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: 3a 5a cube then play 22 (ah_clem)
Date: Monday, 6 August 2012, at 4:48 p.m.
If we just count blotting rolls next turn -- counting the rolls that leave two blots instead of one twice -- Blue has 22 blotting numbers after 4/2(4) and 26 after 4/off(2).
Play Single blotting numbers Double blotting numbers in all 4/2(4) 64 62 61 54 52 51 43 41 32 31 21 none 22/36 4/o(2) 63 62 53 52 41 32 21 64 54 43 14/36 + 2 * 6/36 4/2(4) should be clearly best. You lose some wins after being hit for having only 6 off instead of 8, but you get get hit much less often, and if you play 4/o(2) you don't win after the double blotting numbers whenever you are hit twice immediately, or are hit once and fail to safety the other blot. Also, 4/2(4) should be safer two turns from now, since clearing the 5 point leaves only 1 point to clear, while after 4/o(2) clearing the 5 point leaves 2 points to clear.
How much less often you get hit after 4/2(4) is difficult to estimate, but shouldn't be necessary since the foregoing appraisal should be close enough. For starters, if White always keeps his two anchors, 4/36 * 20/36 = 6% should be approximate -- that's 4/36 more blotting numbers and an average 20/36 double shot at a single checker. But 4/2(4) allows White to split with aces, giving White a triple shot at one checker, so the difference is smaller, something like
22/36 * 20/36 * 25/36 0.235 22/36 * 27/36 * 11/36 0.140 total 0.375 26/36 * 20/36 0.401 difference 0.025 = 2.5% Or a bit more than that, since after 4/2(4) White gets 23/36 hitting numbers instead of 20/36 after some of Blue's blotting numbers.
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