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Rollout: Find the right 2

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 15 August 2012, at 12:32 a.m.

In Response To: Find the right 2 (Timothy Chow)

Sal Pittelli found the right 2, according to the rollout, though I'm not sure I follow Sal's explanation. This is what I call a "buy now or buy later" problem. To net those juicy gammons that you want so badly ATS, you'd really like to hit when you have a stronger board and White doesn't have an anchor. That argues for buying later. The trouble with buying later, of course, is that you might not get a chance to buy at all. But White is badly disconnected and Blue has solid outfield control, so the chances of getting another shot later and hitting it are quite good.

OTB, I chose to buy now, but it looks like patience was a virtue here.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 5
pip: 96
7 point match
pip: 132
score: 4

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=---BCbD----B-B---a-dcBb-c-:1:-1:1:42:4:5:0:7:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout16/2 4/2eq: +0.184
Player:
Opponent:		 53.52% (G:11.94% B:0.79%)
46.48% (G:14.77% B:0.17%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.177...+0.191)
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.Rollout121/17* 6/4eq: +0.145 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		 53.69% (G:7.40% B:0.57%)
46.31% (G:13.02% B:0.25%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.139...+0.151)
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes
3.Rollout121/17* 17/15eq: +0.135 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		 53.23% (G:7.35% B:0.53%)
46.77% (G:13.21% B:0.26%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.128...+0.142)
Duration: 1 hour 25 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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