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5-1 to play

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 19 August 2012, at 1:47 a.m.

In Response To: 5-1 to play (Giuliano Pietoso)

Some problems present you with a close decision between similar plays. That might be the case here, but look at the contrast between the hitting plays (13/8*, 10/9* my preference) and the passive "wait for a better homeboard" plays (18/13, 3/2 my preference). The aggressive choices lead to a lot of gammon wins (for the match) and gammon losses (to trail 4-away Crawford with 18+% match winning chances). Ironically the cube location, which would be a big factor at unlimited/$ play, isn't as much of an issue here because Blue will wait until the gammon win chances are gone before redoubling.

Hitting goes sour with the 13 return hits. 9 more rolls anchor. 4 rolls fan, 2 rolls enter both without hitting, and the remaining 8 rolls enter one and leave one on the bar.

Hitting White's two outfield checkers leaves White a dangerous desert traverse of nearly 3 quadrants when White fails to return hit. So those 9 anchor-without-hitting rolls aren't so great for White, even though they remove the immediate blowouts.

For sure most American-football coaches would choose the "don't put the game on the line" plays. It seems like the upside is so huge for hitting and seizing control that the 13 risky hits are worth it, by gut feel, anyway. Even when wrong, as a consolation they're best for the human psyche.

13/8*, 10/9*

Messages In This Thread

• 5-1 to play
  Giuliano Pietoso -- Saturday, 18 August 2012, at 9:57 p.m.
  • 5-1 to play
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 18 August 2012, at 11:37 p.m.
  • 5-1 to play
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 19 August 2012, at 1:47 a.m.
    • 5-1 to play
      Stick -- Sunday, 19 August 2012, at 2:02 p.m.
  • 5-1 to play
    Martin -- Sunday, 19 August 2012, at 10:31 a.m.