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Make the best of this

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 2 September 2012, at 12:21 a.m.

In Response To: Make the best of this (Daniel Murphy)

Blue's hope is that A) White doesn't run past the back checker, and B) White hits neither checker. (Note that if Blue were to get his choice between only one of A and B, he clearly chooses A since getting hit still gives residual future hitting chances.) So, IMO, the goal is to place the two checkers to maximize the intersection of these two desires. Let's count White's bad rolls after some candidate plays:

13/10: {23, 24} = 4.

13/11, 2/1: {13, 14, 15} = 6.

13/12, 5/3: {14, 15, 24} = 6.

5/2: {21*, 51, 32} = 6 (with * meaning White has the choice of advancing into a pure double shot or staying put and seeing if Blue plays uncomfortably, but still leaving almost a double shot).

Did we miss anything? If Blue plays 13/12 and White rolls 33, it looks like his best play is 16/13*/10, 4/1(2) which still leaves {41, 51, 61, 64, 55} = 9 immediate shots.

There are some secondary effects, such as duplication of Blue's entering and hitting rolls after White hits, and the number of actual Blue hitting rolls when White misses without safetying.

I'm going with staying on the 13-point, which besides White's 2-1 also means Blue's entering 4's won't be duplicated and White is forced onto his homeside when hitting, giving Blue potential bonus flyshots from the bar.

5/2

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