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BGonline.org Forums
New Stick Challenge
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: New Stick Challenge (Joe Russell)
Date: Sunday, 2 September 2012, at 10:50 a.m.
This is a nice and well written post, Joe. I agree about your remarks about Bill. I don't think Bill has done anything wrong to deserve to be cursed. I believe everyone who believes in Stick's controversy, including myself, realize that there is a chance we are wrong, and I am fine with that. I have been wrong before, might be wrong again. For a long time I believed Stick was a real deal, which automatically makes me wrong, either then or now.
I wish everyone was open minded as you are. The reality is different, however. Majority of posters have a very strong opinion, and refuse any possibility they are wrong. Some go as far as cursing those who have different opinion. Here is a message to everyone who has interest in this subject: Nobody is accusing Stick because of fun of it. There is no doubt in my mind he is a better player than I am, regardless of his true strength. Remarks such as "You wish you were as good as he is" missing the point. We are only interested in truth. This whole mess started because of strong evidence against Stick. Under no circumstances this is a personal attack.
Strange things do happen. They happen in backgammon and real life. Your example of 10 matches in a row with 2.5PR or lower doesn't look very strange to me, however. Let's say your chances of playing 2.5PR or lower in a single match is P=1/4. Then, playing 10 consecutive matches with this error rate is 1/4^10 or 1/2^20 which should be one in a million. But you had so many tries to do that this number shrinks down.
I want to make it clear: there is no evidence proving with 100% certainty Stick cheated. A video would be such a proof, but it doesn't exist. This is why Bill came up with his props. He has the evidence, believes in it, and ready to risk his own money to show he is right. Does Stick have to accept it? No, I don't believe he has to, but I think he should. Stick knows statistical evidence is against him. He knows many of his peers don't believe in his abilities to play with 2.xPR anymore. He knows he will never be number 1 Giant if this issue is not resolved. He knows he is missing potential "customers" in both real play and lessons. I know if someone offered me a free roll against my PR on Iancho's list I would be playing in no time. O.K. maybe he doesn't care what you or I think, but I recall he was involved in some type of "Anti Cheater" project. If he is innocent, as he says he is, and this issue is important to him, then perhaps showing he is "clean" himself is the right thing to do?
It is nice for you to come up with your own prop, Joe. From my point of view there are two problems.
1. Although Stick has averaged 4.x in his live matches I believe he is low-to-mid 3PR player. So, from my point of view this deal is not good.
2. I am not questioning his abilities to play very good BG, I am questioning his abilities to replicate his very low online PR. So, from my point of view this deal will resolve nothing.
Finally, even if we agreed on anything, there is no indication Stick would play anyway.
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