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OLM Th 09/06/12

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 7 September 2012, at 3:56 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Th 09/06/12 (Jason Lee)

This is a tough one and if you want to know why clocks hurt a stronger player you need look no farther than this problem. Now if pressed for time I could make guesses at the take point and gammon values, but why bother in an unclocked match. Go get yourself some McDonald's as I take all the time I need to try to tackle this problem. First, our take point.

  • Double/Pass is 9a 12a or 64% ME
  • Double/Take/Lose is 9a 10a or 55% ME
  • Double/Take/Win is 5a 14a or 88% ME

All figures were arrived at using Neil's Numbers. Since it's for a post on the forums, I also checked against XG's MET figures and they align. So, we would be risking 9% to gain 24%. Slightly less than 3-1 meaning our take point should be ~26%. The cube in these situations isn't dead but it's virtually dead knowing that our opp's lctp on an 8 cube comes in around 10%. So while you could figure in some recube vig it wouldn't be much. At most I'd say our live cube take point is ~25%.

Now, on to gammons. I will spare you the math of it all and jump to the end result that our gammons are worth .300, significantly less than money, and our opp's are worth .650, clearly more than at a normal match score.

Now we need to estimate gammons and wins which is hard to do. Before I estimate I do try to get a feel for positions which are unfamiliar to me. My feeling is this: 'We win a lot and our net gammons are significant.' That's what I have to work with.

I'll work with the assumption that our own gammons fall into that range of normalcy for any player taking a contact position cube, 5-10%. I would estimate it's at the upper part of this window with so much contact left. It is harder to estimate our opp's gammon chances but I think it's a fair guess that the net gammon difference is 20%. In other words, if we win 10% he wins 30%. Using these figures and plugging in the gammon values our fully adjusted live cube take point becomes ~41.5% (30*.65 - 10*.30 or 19.5-3 = 16.5).

Do we have 41.5%? Hell if I know ... looking at the problem initially I thought to myself 60/40. Now I see I may need to be a bit more precise. If the decision is close it is easy for me to pass a human and by the same rationale, easy for me to take v. XG. We're playing XG so...

Take

Stick

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