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OT: Estimating real winning probablilities from decimal odds

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 9 September 2012, at 1:54 a.m.

In Response To: OT: Estimating real winning probablilities from decimal odds (Christian Plenz)

I am not a expert of US politics but I think you can exclude C & D. Dont know if this is a try for dumb money or just to be more than accurate :)

Given that voting day is less than 2 months away and no one outside the top two parties is being mentioned, I'd have to come down on the explanation of sucking money out of the suckers with C, D.

Dogmatic followers of the "Wisdom of the Crowd" concept would likely try to extract true odds from the posted odds. But the fact that C&D are listed with non-negligible chances (inverse odds) shows you that whoever is creating this line has more in mind that just extracting uniform juice.

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