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USBGF OLM Position help -- Rollout AtS

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 9 September 2012, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: USBGF OLM Position help (Giuliano Pietoso)

I didn't roll out the top N plays but rather a sampling of plays which includes different themes. Plays of a similar vein are close in equity -- for example, 8/2 accompanied by any homeboard ace are pretty close to 8/1.

It's all about gammon losses overpowering wins at this score:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 92
5 point match
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--B-ABCaB--a-B----bcbbbbC-:1:1:1:61:0:0:0:5:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout18/1eq: -1.2362
Player:
Opponent:
13.44% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
86.56% (G:40.26% B:5.02%)
Conf.: ±0.0069 (-1.2431...-1.2294) - [100.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -1.2979 (-0.0616)
Player:
Opponent:
14.31% (G:0.17% B:0.01%)
85.69% (G:45.35% B:6.51%)
Conf.: ±0.0065 (-1.3043...-1.2914) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 39 seconds
3.Rollout113/7* 8/7eq: -1.3056 (-0.0694)
Player:
Opponent:
16.46% (G:0.71% B:0.03%)
83.54% (G:48.15% B:9.76%)
Conf.: ±0.0088 (-1.3145...-1.2968) - [0.0%]
Duration: 28 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout113/12 13/7* eq: -1.3150 (-0.0788)
Player:
Opponent:
14.80% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
85.20% (G:46.28% B:8.95%)
Conf.: ±0.0088 (-1.3238...-1.3062) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 46 seconds
5.Rollout113/7* 7/6eq: -1.3304 (-0.0942)
Player:
Opponent:
14.21% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
85.79% (G:46.90% B:8.00%)
Conf.: ±0.0075 (-1.3380...-1.3229) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 54 seconds
6.Rollout113/7* 2/1eq: -1.4999 (-0.2636)
Player:
Opponent:
16.77% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)
83.23% (G:57.49% B:17.46%)
Conf.: ±0.0123 (-1.5121...-1.4876) - [0.0%]
Duration: 39 minutes 16 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25989218
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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