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BGonline.org Forums
Many will find this ludicrous...
Posted By: Michael Petch In Response To: Many will find this ludicrous... (Strato)
Date: Monday, 10 September 2012, at 2:31 a.m.
Actually at the time, the site didn't even realize that the change they made (when the site first came online) actually produced significantly lower (and measurable) results for doubles. They were surprised when I first contacted them with my 600k rolls (plus the original <100k from Neil Robbins).
I explained to them how such dice studies are done, and what the data I gave them meant. Please remember this was a social site. It wasn't a money site, and they believed the change they made was actually not a problem. They are also not statisticians. They explained to me exactly what they did (I am probably one of the few who actually knows the specifics) - they weren't hiding what was actually going on.
After seeing the data, and understanding how the analysis was done, they were more than happy to move forward to implement proper dice. Shortly afterwards the dice were changed SITE WIDE. What happened from there was quite amazing. Some of their bigger tournament groups gave the site an ultimatum "give us the fair dice back or we will move our tournaments elsewhere". Their idea of fair dice were the ones with 60% fewer doubles. And this feeling was from a clear majority of the hosting community, and this was at the behest of the players.
As a compromise the site then created 2 types of rooms which are marked on their lobbies. yellow and red dice. There is a terse description of both, however I have suggested that they link to a better description of what the red dice really mean. The rated room and competitive rooms use yellow (proper dice). The social rooms use red (improper). The tournament rooms and ladders actually have a choice of yellow and red. And the preferred choice is improper (red) dice. This is a choice the tournament groups and players are making, not the site. And 3 years later there is very little movement by social players and tournaments to make the change! And they KNOW there is a difference.
What I can say is that the red dice (Which are the same dice the site had when it opened) are in fact random. The change they made is player agnostic. The change was done so that it had the same chance of affecting either player. The end result was the chance that any particular die value showed was what you'd expect but the probability that both dies showed as a double was lower. Of course trying to create such behavior with real dice would be pretty much impossible, but very easy for an algorithm.
I would prefer that SHG use all yellow dice, but even 3 years later the majority of players on that site want the red dice.
A lot (not all) social players have a different frame of mind when it comes to what seems fair vs what is actually right. Where as you ask a World Class player and they'd balk at the whole idea.
Is it wrong that SHG caters to the social players? After 3 years, I believe my position has softened and since it is common knowledge I say - let them give the players what the want. Do I consider it Backgammon? Yes, but I would say it is a different variation of Backgammon.
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