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Many will find this ludicrous... - another example

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 10 September 2012, at 10:32 p.m.

In Response To: Many will find this ludicrous... (Daniel Murphy)

Another example, I think, of how altering the frequency of doublets affects a vast number of positions in ways that are far from obvious to players in the SHG "red room." Here are two positions in which, with normal dice, Blue hits exactly 18/36 = 50% of the time immediately:

Unlimited match. Blue on roll.

White75

1O3X4X2X2O ' '5X1X ' ' '

 '2O2O2O2O2O2O ' ' ' ' '
Blue118
Position ID: 7g1fAAC2bQOAIQ Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE

White61

3X3X1O3X3X2X1O ' ' ' ' '

 ' ' '3O3O4O3O ' ' ' '1X
Blue112
Position ID: d+4GBAC4ewdACA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE

I think it would difficult for you to guess how often Blue hits with either "8.33% doublets" dice or "9.22% doublets" dice in these two positions, so I'll just tell you. In the first position:

Normal dice "8.33% doublets" dice"9.22% doublets" dice
2 doublets * 2.7777 =05.5555* 1.3888 =02.77777 * 1.5366 =03.0732
16/2 = 8 nondoublets* 5.5555 =44.4444* 6.1111 =48.88888 * 6.0518 =48.4144
total 50.0 51.6666 51.4876

In the second position:

Normal dice "8.33% doublets" dice"9.22% doublets" dice
4 doublets * 2.7777 =11.1111* 1.3888 =05.555555 * 1.5366 =06.1464
14/2 = 7 nondoublets* 5.5555 =38.8888* 6.1111 =42.7777 * 6.0518 =42.3626
total 50.0 48.3333 48.5090

That ... just ain't right, whether it's called "backgammon" or not.

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