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How much easier?

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Saturday, 15 September 2012, at 1:04 a.m.

In Response To: How much easier? (Bob Koca)

I was wondering the same thing.

Suppose you were flipping pennies instead of playing backgammon. Each head counts as a win and each tail counts as a loss. The chance of getting an 8-0 lead is (1/2)^8 = 1/256. The chance of winning a 9-point match from down 8-0 is (1/2)^9 = 1/512. So in coin flipping it is twice as hard to come back and win than it is to build up the lead.

Backgammon is different because you have gammons and backgammons and cubes and the crawford rule, so it is not so easy to calculate, but I would have still thought it would be harder to come back and win than to build up the lead.

Many players underestimate their chances when down in a lopsided match. This would give the impression that it is easier to come back (because they weren't really down as far as they thought).

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