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How much easier?

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Saturday, 15 September 2012, at 1:06 a.m.

In Response To: How much easier? (Tom Keith)

Suppose you were flipping pennies instead of playing backgammon. Each head counts as a win and each tail counts as a loss. The chance of getting an 8-0 lead is (1/2)^8 = 1/256. The chance of winning a 9-point match from down 8-0 is (1/2)^9 = 1/512. So in coin flipping it is twice as hard to come back and win than it is to build up the lead.

I assumed Bill was talking about coming from behind to tie it up -- that way in the corresponding coin flipping model, the chances are equal. "Obviously" it is harder to score nine points than eight.

JLee

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