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win probability for a PR difference and match length

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 20 September 2012, at 5:14 p.m.

In Response To: win probability for a PR difference and match length (Rick Janowski)

To utilise performance ratings in a an Elo-based Backgammon Rating System, it is possible to utilise the empirical relationship derived by Xavier of 3 pr difference = 100 Elo difference. My tests on a considerable amount of data from IIBGF tournaments last year showed excellent correlation with this relationship for all Elo ratings above 1500.

1) Is this a linear relationship (for the purpose of interpolating and extrapolating)? I.e. is the following true: dE = 100*dP/3 for small and large values of dP?

2) Does it apply over the full range of known PR's (e.g. [2,100]), and if not, over what range does it apply?

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