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DMP-bearoff with contact-confusion

Posted By: roadkillbooks
Date: Friday, 21 September 2012, at 4:54 a.m.

In Response To: DMP-bearoff with contact (Stick)

yes 5 off and 7 off do not come up.

After moving 4/1 (4),

we will clear with 5 rolls, blot with 20 rolls and next (put off till next turn) with 11. After nexting we will blot with 10 rolls, clear with 25, next with one.

When we blot on the first roll we will have 6 off on 8 rolls and 7 off on 12 rolls.

of the 11/36 that are nexts On the second roll we will have 9 off (8 times), 8 off (2 times), 11 off (1 time)

so we blot here (20/36 * 36/36) + (11/36 * 10/36) = 830/1296.. 830 blots after 2 rolls

-----------------

After moving 3o(3), 4/1:

we will clear 4/36, blot 12/36 and next 20/36

of the Next will will then clear with 16/36, blot with 18/36 and next again

2/36

So I get this....

3o (3), 4/1

leaves blots 12/36 now and then 18/36 after 20/36 so

(12/36 * 36/36) + (18/36 * 20/36) is 792/1296.. aprox 792 shots after 2 rolls ........

So when we pull off 3 checkers we blot less and when we do we have already taken off more checkers on average.

So why is it WRONG?

I do not have a computer I can roll this out on but I also dont see how xg would have this wrong. I also tried this with the threat of a full prime alrady formed if hit and it was the same.

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