The connecting play does come out a tad better than slotting play; the running play -- the other candidate according to Robertie -- seems to be #4.
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a--B-D-B---dEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:56:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 56 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 13/8 | eq: -0.053 | | Player:
Opponent: | 48.69% (G:13.15% B:0.52%)
51.31% (G:13.98% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.060...-0.046) - [99.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 00 minute |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.066 (-0.013) | | Player:
Opponent: | 47.48% (G:14.75% B:0.46%)
52.52% (G:12.58% B:0.74%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.073...-0.059) - [0.5%]
Duration: 1 hour 01 minute |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.076 (-0.023) | | Player:
Opponent: | 47.31% (G:15.64% B:0.40%)
52.69% (G:13.62% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.084...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.086 (-0.033) | | Player:
Opponent: | 47.87% (G:10.53% B:0.33%)
52.13% (G:11.23% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.092...-0.079) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 02 minutes |
| | | 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19602315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
When we shift the 4pt to the 5pt, slotting is at least as good as splitting. Despite having two checkers back vs. one by the opponent, we probably rate to fare better in the possible priming game now.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a---BD-B---dEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:56:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 56 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.003 | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.27% (G:15.23% B:0.50%)
50.73% (G:12.49% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.008...+0.001) - [75.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 09 minutes |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 24/18 13/8 | eq: -0.005 (-0.002) | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.55% (G:12.85% B:0.49%)
50.45% (G:12.25% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.010...-0.001) - [24.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 26 minutes |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | 24/13 | eq: -0.032 (-0.029) | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.05% (G:11.25% B:0.36%)
50.95% (G:10.94% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.042...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 56 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout3 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.045 (-0.042) | | Player:
Opponent: | 47.95% (G:15.83% B:0.43%)
52.05% (G:13.43% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.055...-0.034) - [0.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 56 seconds |
| | | 1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43739984
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43739984
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19602315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Now, let's shift to the 3pt. It is running that is now best, despite our desire to unstack the midpoint and to add a builder to the stripped 8pt.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a-B--D-B---dEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:56:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 56 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.125 | | Player:
Opponent: | 46.80% (G:10.37% B:0.30%)
53.20% (G:11.79% B:0.35%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.132...-0.119) - [99.9%]
Duration: 59 minutes 53 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 24/18 13/8 | eq: -0.141 (-0.016) | | Player:
Opponent: | 46.51% (G:12.31% B:0.46%)
53.49% (G:14.21% B:0.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.149...-0.134) - [0.1%]
Duration: 58 minutes 52 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.149 (-0.023) | | Player:
Opponent: | 45.38% (G:15.11% B:0.41%)
54.62% (G:14.13% B:0.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.159...-0.138) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 44 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout2 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.163 (-0.038) | | Player:
Opponent: | 45.10% (G:14.16% B:0.47%)
54.90% (G:13.42% B:0.73%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.172...-0.153) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 09 seconds |
| | | 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19602315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 19602315
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
With 2pt made, running is best by a mile.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 157
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-aB---D-B---dEa--d-e----B-:0:0:1:56:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 56 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 24/13 | eq: -0.165 | | Player:
Opponent: | 45.42% (G:10.57% B:0.28%)
54.58% (G:12.34% B:0.38%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.174...-0.156) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 12 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 24/18 13/8 | eq: -0.208 (-0.043) | | Player:
Opponent: | 44.69% (G:12.20% B:0.46%)
55.31% (G:14.93% B:0.55%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.217...-0.199) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 56 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: -0.214 (-0.049) | | Player:
Opponent: | 43.77% (G:13.94% B:0.38%)
56.23% (G:13.64% B:0.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.225...-0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 31 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 13/7 6/1* | eq: -0.226 (-0.061) | | Player:
Opponent: | 43.53% (G:14.18% B:0.30%)
56.47% (G:14.08% B:0.98%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.236...-0.216) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 54 seconds |
| | | 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18654414
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
First, it is apparent that a lot more is going on in the position than just a simple idea of connectivity. Robertie found the only position of the second point in our home board that makes splitting to the 18pt better than the alternatives. Even then the choice between splitting and slotting is pretty tight.
What I'm not sure about is what makes running best for 3pt and 2pt. We didn't gain that much in the race. Is it because with splitting and slotting an exchange of hits is likely to develop and then white has a decent chance of making an advanced anchor thus negating the value of our deep point?