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Two-part problem

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 29 September 2012, at 8:17 p.m.

In Response To: Two-part problem (Timothy Chow)

The 3a player's tp is ~24% w/the gv split ~.55/.35. I would estimate the on roll player is a small favorite in the game, doesn't even feel like 60% since the race is even and White has a very strong offensive position. There aren't many (if any) net gammons for the player doubling either since he's a long way from closing that checker on the bar out and even when he does his gammons aren't so high. My estimates would be 57/43 and an ever so small addition for the gammons won by the player doubling due solely to the tilted gammon values.

All that translates to being far away from the drop point, easiest take in the world. I would take a roll.

We should feel that at dmp running is correct by a country mile. I don't think the extra gammons at this gv will make up for all the single losses. (esp. since making the 4pt will also lose more gammons) 20/10 for me.

Stick

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