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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 2 January 2007, at 5:24 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Mon. Jan. 1st - 2007! (Stick)

Running out bar/18 didn't even make my rollout. That's asking for punishment, asking to get gammoned. Between 13/8 and 8/3 I preferred 13/8 for a couple of reasons. First of all there's saving the gammon. If my quick count serves me correctly you need 65 pips to bring all your men in your inner board (to the six point) or 20 crossovers. With me being 91 pips away from my gammon and you being on my 3 pt. bothering me as I bearin & bearoff, it sounds like you should easily save the gammon fairly easily. Still, I see no reason to waste the pips just yet. I don't feel 8/3 helps your distribution much at all and there's also 'what if you hit a fly shot next turn'?! It's possible, as I'll probably have to leave an indirect and you have a spare so you'd definitely hit if you got the chance. If you have the chance to hit do you want that ugly blot on your 3 pt.?


Match to 25, White leads 7 to 4
91
163
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R bar/22 13/8 -0.889
0.1% 0.6% 13.4% 86.6% 21.3% 0.2%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.940 ±0.014. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 10905 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R bar/22 8/3 -0.907 (-0.019)
0.0% 0.5% 13.5% 86.5% 23.1% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.958 ±0.013. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 14296 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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