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Stupid Bearoff

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Friday, 12 October 2012, at 12:09 p.m.

In Response To: Stupid Bearoff (Michael Nielsen)

Michael wrote:
"Two guys off and then I play 3/2(2). Then after a no miss (and no doublets for white) you can use the cube.
3/1 probably wins about the same cubeless, but after a no miss you overshoot your window by a ton."

Correct, Michael, but an important consideration is the likelyhood of the two events. If the following events had the same chance of happening, I'd choose the 2nd ;)

1) Blue with one checker on the 3 and 2 point, opponent with one checker left, blue doubles white IN at 4

2) blue with one checker on the 3 and 1 point, opponent with one checker left, blue overshoots his market and doubles white OUT

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