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From a game I was watching on GG...redouble

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 16 October 2012, at 2:48 p.m.

In Response To: From a game I was watching on GG...redouble (Klaus Evers)

Takepoint is 91% (Blue's point-of-view) and window opens about (9/74 =) 88%.

I count six rolls that leave a 1/6 shot. Call that 3% wins (even though hitting doesn't guarantee the win -- close enough?)

Most of the time Blue gets home this roll he still leaves a direct shot next turn with 62. (1/18)*(1/3) is another 2% GWC.

Racing, Kleinman Count is (25+4)^2/(87 + 62 -4) which is 841/145 or a bit under 6. (I'm calling this 4% GWC for White.)

We've reached the takepoint. Some other considerations: A) There can be later hitting chances than the ones just enumerated. B) Kleinman likely underestimates White's racing chances due to Blue's inefficiencies (i.e. wastage). C) Will White still have a take next turn? D) Will White pass a take now or take a pass next turn?

The 'standard' response is that the redoubling window is so small than trying to (correctly) dive through the opening without getting cut to shreds is a bad idea. QF could indicate otherwise here.

FWIW, I hold another turn.

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