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Pure Race Question

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 24 October 2012, at 3:54 a.m.

In Response To: Pure Race Question (Giuliano Pietoso)

Race formulas don't fail here, it is purely AtS decision. If my computation is correct, our redoubling window AtS is 50%--67%. Let's estimate our winning chances using race formulas. In positions like this one, I usually apply both Keith count and Ward adjusted pip count and then "average" the results.

First, Keith count: blue 36, white 30. White last point of take would be 34 for 22% winning chances. In short races each pip is worth 3%, so we get 34% winning chances for white. In the end, I usually make a slight adjustment to Keith for the number of checkers in such short races, say 1% for each extra checker. So, white is about 37% to win.

Second, Ward count: blue 30, white 26.5. White last point of take would be 30*1.2~33.5 pips for 22% winning chances. So white has 7 pips to spare for a total of 43% winning chances. (I don't know a good way to adjust the 8-9-12 rule for short races, the actual winning chances should be less than 43%, but I can't estimate the difference.)

Averaging the two results we get about 60-59% vs. 40-39% in our favor (the 43% from Ward is for sure a bit too high). Looks like a good redouble AtS and certainly not a double for money.

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