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OLM We 10/31/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 5:38 p.m.

In Response To: OLM We 10/31/12 (Jason Lee)

Setting up for 22 works when White gets off in 2 rolls while spreading out on the 1-2-5 points does better if White doesn't get off in 2 rolls and Blue next rolls 2-1.

Breaking those down:

White gets off in two rolls (with some possible longshot exceptions I'm not going to look for) by (in either order) not rolling an ace on one roll and getting 55 or 66 on the other. That's 2 x (25/36) x (2/36) = 25/(36*9) = 25/324.

The difference in chances between getting off with 100100 compared to 000010 is just 2/36 (the 32 roll) and Blue first has to roll 21: (2/36)*(2/36) = 1/324.

Looks like setting up for doublet-2 is 25 times better.

3/0, 6/0, 5/2

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