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Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:32 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this? (Robert Andersson)

I don't know any magic formula, but certainly any component of such a formula must include the number of immediate blotting rolls that White has. Here, 64 62 61 54 52 51 43 42 41 31 21 all give you a direct shot next turn if you stay. That's 22 rolls, which is quite a lot.

Another thing to consider is what your winning chances are if you do hit the shot. There is a table of reference positions for one-checker closeouts that you can easily find if you search around. Here, White's position will typically be a tad worse than the reference position with 9 checkers off, but it should be close enough for OTB calculation.

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
  Robert Andersson -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 10:30 a.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:32 p.m.
    • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        poseidon -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 6:51 p.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:02 p.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:44 p.m.
            • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
              Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:50 p.m.
              • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 2:36 p.m.
          • +1 *NM*
            poseidon -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 8:39 a.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:15 a.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          konstantin -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
    Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
      • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
        Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 6:27 p.m.
        • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
          • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
            Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:27 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              konstantin -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:57 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:14 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  konstantin -- Friday, 9 November 2012, at 12:48 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:51 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:02 a.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:39 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 8:39 p.m.
                  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:32 p.m.