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Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:02 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this? (poseidon)

If I stay here's the position I am considering in my head. I first will need to count how many shots I get (and hit) by going through his bad rolls. I am also mentally noting now my reference positions and how deep my own spares are pushed for when I do get the shot. It will obviously matter how many men he has off as to what reference position I use.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 68 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 21 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CCBBBB------------b--bAc-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

I am accepting that if I don't get a shot this turn I am running. Why? Because if not I will be forced to break my board next turn greatly diminishing any shot I may get. So I need to worry about only the immediate sequence. I scroll through the rolls in my head, first going through the doublets then [65 64 63 62 61 54 53 52 51 43 42 41 32 31 21] This is how I always do it. It makes sure I don't overlook any rolls while trying to cherry pick. It is also a great habit that speeds things up since I do it the same all the time.

So the rolls I would pick out are: [64 62 61 54 52 51 43 42 41 31 21] That's 22 rolls that leave a shot. Now, on average, how many shots do I get? You can either estimate as I would OtB and guess it's about 1/3rd of the time or actually count them up and average them. If not on a clock this is what I would do. The average would come up to just over 12. (270/22)

Over the next sequence I hit a shot ~7/36 games. At this point I am mentally noting any rounding I'm doing in case I want to round in the other direction later in my calculations. If I hit 7/36 games and for the most part he'll have off 9 checkers when I do hit he'll still be approx. a 60/40 favorite using my reference position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 32 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBBCCB--A-------------bc-:1:1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.	XG Roller+	9/6	eq: -0.038
	Player: Opponent: 41.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 58.85% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

I will need to adjust for him not being perfectly crunched and for myself not having a good spare distribution. Luckily I've studied some at home and I would not lose too much sleep over canceling those factors out. I hit 7/36 games or ~19.5% of the time and from there I win roughly 40% of the time or 8%. Overall I believe I have rounded down more than anything so I wouldn't complain if someone wanted to push that 8% up a shade. (esp. if they had the rollout result in front of them and would make me look like a genius in doing so)

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
  Robert Andersson -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 10:30 a.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:32 p.m.
    • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        poseidon -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 6:51 p.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:02 p.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:44 p.m.
            • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
              Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:50 p.m.
              • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 2:36 p.m.
          • +1 *NM*
            poseidon -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 8:39 a.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:15 a.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          konstantin -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
    Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
      • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
        Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 6:27 p.m.
        • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
          • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
            Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:27 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              konstantin -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:57 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:14 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  konstantin -- Friday, 9 November 2012, at 12:48 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:51 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:02 a.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:39 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 8:39 p.m.
                  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:32 p.m.