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nice racing lead what now

Posted By: smcrtorchs
Date: Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 1:37 p.m.

In Response To: nice racing lead what now (konstantin)

This looks like a pay now or pay later situation. Of course you have to pay now somehow anyways. I know that breaking the 13 point would give blue a good chance to roll doubles and bring home the back anchor. However this does not look very reasonable here and the price of paying now (I think) is higher than other similar situations as white has placed his 9 spares in his home board pretty effectively. A good question is how much timing white has left before he has to break an anchor or come to the outfield with his back checker. White will have to run sooner or later with the back checker if he does not want to break his 13 anchor. And that would mean 1 or 2 good opportunities for blue to break an anchor with a hit. This scenario gives blue a good incentive for making an extra point in his home board as it can prove valuable.

If blue runs now from the 17 point then he is very likely to leave a shot in the next roll. If blue has to break his 13 point in the future, before he breaks is 17 point anchor, white might have to break his 13th point anchor soon if he cannot roll a 6 or a 4 when he wants it to run with the back checker. Certainly blue's 17 anchor is also an asset, as it covers the outfield. It does not only have negatives. All in all I think that it is time to do something constructive for the rolls to come. I am trying to calculate blue's chance if white hits after 6/4 6/2 and at a very quick glance they do not look that bad to me. Blue has a big racing lead here, but this does not translate into a big advantage yet. Note also that if blue breaks the 17 point anchor and white hits then white can use his spares from his 13 point quite effectively to prime blue or make more inner points. However if white hits after 6/4 6/2 white will have to be much more cautious. At a very last note 6/4 6/2 also ups the pressure on white's blot on the ace. I would go for it.

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