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Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 4:14 p.m.

In Response To: Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this? (Robert Andersson)

Blue requires 17 pips to bear in and 1 pip to bear off 18/7 or 2.57 rolls.

For white to win 19% Gammons as given by the RO, her Gammons Per Pip ratio would need to be 1.3 * 18 - 19.5% (Stick's estimate) = 18.9%.

To achieve this ratio, White would need to roll 66 55 44 33 this turn and the next for 11.1*11.1 = 1.23. A further 10th can be added for 11 22.

White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 94 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 21 score: 0 Blue is Player 2 XGID=-BBBBBC------------b--bBc-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take   Player Winning Chances: 85.59% (G:53.54% B:2.65%) 85.59% (G:53.54% B:2.65%)   Opponent Winning Chances: 14.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 14.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)   Cubeless Equities +1.274 +2.547 Cubeful Equities No redouble: +1.223 Redouble/Take: +2.446 (+1.223) Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (-0.223)   Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 15.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

In this example, blue's GPPR would need to be 1.53 * 35 = 53.55 Gammons. This ratio would need to be between 5/36 * 4/36.

NBM

Messages In This Thread

• Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
  Robert Andersson -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 10:30 a.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:32 p.m.
    • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 3:52 p.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        poseidon -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 6:51 p.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:02 p.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:44 p.m.
            • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
              Stick -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 8:50 p.m.
              • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
                Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 2:36 p.m.
          • +1 *NM*
            poseidon -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 8:39 a.m.
          • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
            Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:15 a.m.
        • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
          konstantin -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:07 a.m.
      • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Hit or Go?, is there a magic formula for this?
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 6 November 2012, at 4:20 p.m.
  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
    Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 4:14 p.m.
    • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
      • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
        Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 6:27 p.m.
        • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 7:06 p.m.
          • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
            Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:27 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              konstantin -- Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 11:57 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:14 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  konstantin -- Friday, 9 November 2012, at 12:48 p.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 12:51 p.m.
            • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
              Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 1:02 a.m.
              • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:39 a.m.
                • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                  Bob Koca -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 8:39 p.m.
                  • Gammons Per Pip x Distance to bear in +1
                    Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 8 November 2012, at 10:32 p.m.