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BGonline.org Forums
OLM Fri 11/09/12
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM Fri 11/09/12 (Jason Lee)
Date: Saturday, 10 November 2012, at 5:42 p.m.
Best problem we've had in a while? Lots of possible plays with more than one GP and several approaches.
Decision 1: Hit? Opp has a blot in his board that won't last. This isn't the perfect opportunity but IMO likely the best we're going to get. (And note we got the shot and we hit it -- both parts of the parlay. Just getting a shot later isn't enough.) Answer: yes.
Decision 2: Keep the homeboard blot on the 3-point or advance to the acepoint? Normally I would keep it on the 3-point (better point and easier to cover) but here the only direct covers currently cost us our 8-point and possibly leave a blot there in the process. No need to rule out 3/1, but let's look to see how that fits with other plays.
Decision 3: Keep the 18-point? If we get hit, we'll be glad we kept the point. Even if not hit, we still are going to be behind in the race so a far back point is better for future hits. If there are good plays that allow us to keep the 18-point then I think we do.
Decision 3: Shift 13/11(2)? That's a good blocking point to have. However it does cost us some flexibility (not a big factor usually) and means we can't minimize shots this turn. (I.e. we will only have one deuce to play -- can't play both 16/14 and 3/1.) Leaning against this.
Decision 4: How many shots do we give opp this turn? The candidates allow us as few as 11 and as many as 16. Fewer is better. :)
Decision 5: How many total blots do we leave? 1, 2, 3?
Finally, what play gives us the most of the above? I think it's 18/16*/12 combined with 3/1. On the plus side we hit, keep the 18-point, and minimize shots (11). On the downside we leave one more blot than necessary, advance to the acepoint, and don't make the blocking 11-point. All-in-all it looks to me as though this play gives us the most.
18/16*/12, 3/1
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