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Help with score based race cube.

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Saturday, 10 November 2012, at 6:43 p.m.

In Response To: Help with score based race cube. (Bill Calton)

To get your realistic take points AtS, let the machine do the work for you. Find two positions which straddle the take / pass point and interpolate to get a realistic take point which considers recubes. Please forgive the inadequate number of trials below. You will find small differences between efficient and inefficient races at the same score. 21.5% looks about right for this race and score.





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 138
4 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CC-CBA-fC---cbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.502% (G:0.083% B:0.000%) 78.502% (G:0.075% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.498% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 21.498% (G:0.001% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5710 +1.1281
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.8836 (-0.1153)±0.0073 (+0.8763..+0.8909)
Double/Take:+0.9989±0.0096 (+0.9893..+1.0085)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0011)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74709302
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:59.1%
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 139
4 point match
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----CC-CBA-fC--abbbb-----:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:4:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.621% (G:0.080% B:0.000%) 79.646% (G:0.109% B:0.000%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.379% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) 20.354% (G:0.005% B:0.000%)
Cubeless Equities +0.5933 +1.1857
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9110 (-0.0890)±0.0070 (+0.9041..+0.9180)
Double/Take:+1.0681 (+0.0681)±0.0334 (+1.0347..+1.1015)
Double/Pass:+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 74709302
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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