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Calculating the recube efficiency - did I got it right?

Posted By: Smcrtorchs
Date: Saturday, 10 November 2012, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: Help with score based race cube. (John O'Hagan)

I am trying hard to understand recube vig for some time now in different scores and different types of positions. It has driven me crazy a few times. I am not sure if my calculations - thoughts below are right, so I figured I should ask.

I noticed the calculations you make "70%(*35%*40%). I never read before about such a calculation and I was wondering if I understood it correctly. The way I explained it was: 35% is for the dead take point of the trailer. But what if the leader cubed when he had only 50% to win? Would we then use 50% instead of 35? I guessed yes, but I am not sure. I also guessed that 40% stands there for the maximum possible advantage that we can win from the cube. If the leader plays perfectly, then he will not accept any cube when he has less than 60% winning chances, so 40% must be the maximum. Finally the 70% efficiency that you mention, depends on how close the leader will be able to reach this 60% winning chances which is his optimal doubling point. If he could double at exactly this point he would win 35%*40% = 14%

According to Stick's rollout result, the equity after doubling is 0.886 ATS. This is 0.114 away from 1 and if i am right, in order to translate this equity figure to winning chances we should divide 0.114 by 4.

0.114/4 =0.0285 or 2.85%.

Now if I am right again, we should deduct this 2.85% from the trailer's winning chances in order to find his take point in this type of position. 25.42 (taken from the rollout) - 2.85 = 22.57

So if I am right again 22.57 is the takepoint in this very long race and the recube efficiency would be:

(35 - 22.57/14)= 12.43/14 or 88.78%

Now I guess that this recube efficiency is very high and that means that the trailer can come pretty close to the 60% before he doubles. How close a player can get usually depends on the type of position, on if none, one or both sides can use gammons and finally also on his opponent take point. My final guess was that the 88.78 or 89% figure might be a good number to keep in memory, as it might be pretty close to the maximum recube efficiency you can have in a position.

Am I guessing these right, or did I make mistakes?

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