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OLM Mo 11/12/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2012, at 6:03 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Mo 11/12/12 (Jason Lee)

Hey, I think I've seen this exact position before! It's more fun to try and figure out the best play, even if that is difficult. Here I go:

8/2, 8/7 or similar tweener plays look pretty lame. I think it's between just running to safety or making our 5-point. Kleinman says running wins 19% (without considering wastage, which I don't even know whom that favors) cubeless.

Let's look at opp's rolls, from good (for him) to bad (approximately -- I welcome the nitpickers whom I can't control, anyway):

A) 33, 63 = 3. Hit and cover 6-point.

B) 65, 15 = 4. Hit and cover acepoint.

C) 55, 44 = 2. Just run to huge racing lead.

D) 63, 64, 13, 14, 11 = 9. Hit and cover acepoint, but leave blot on 6-point.

E) 12, 62, 61, 22 = 7. Hit and lift, leaving blot on acepoint.

F) 42, 52, 53, 43, 32 = 10. Miss but shore up the homeboard.

G) 66 = 1. Leave double shot.

I'm calling case F is the status quo (i.e. if we run to safety). We gain with G but that doesn't happen often. So basically who is (net) better off after A-E.

The median (and mode) of those is the "hit, cover the acepoint, but leave a blot on the 6-point". Basically we then need to roll a 6 and then win from there. We hit 30% of the time in those cases, and if we can win 2/3 of those then it's about breakeven with the simple racing play, to win the game. However, we've also let gammons into the big picture so 'breakeven' has to be winning more than 2/3 of those hits. And that was only the median; the mean looks worse.

16/9

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