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OLM Tu 11/13/12

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 14 November 2012, at 3:54 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 11/13/12 (Jason Lee)

Our racing chances have improved, but it looks like our shot hitting chances have done that, too. About 26% cubeless GWC in an equal wastage race. Now I think we waste more, but we still can smooth out with some lucky dice.

If we stay we get hit 15/36 (42%) and get hit a shot next turn ourselves with ~3/36 (7%). Zeroth order approx says we lose every time we get hit, win every time we hit, and break even (26% cgwc) when neither of those occurs. So we win 0*42% + 1*7% 0.26*50% = 20%.

Biggest place we can do better with more realistic assumptions is that we win 10% of the time we get hit. That gets us to 24% wins by staying and 26% by running. Closer, but it still looks like we're better off not leaving the shot.

15/9, 8/3

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