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Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 1:32 p.m.

In Response To: Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM (Carlo Melzi)

This is exactly the borderline point for a take vs pass between equally skilled players. Are you saying that you consider doubling correct for blue as soon as he has reached pass territory?

Here's a rollout of that position with 100 ELO (3 PR) difference:

The score (after 0 games) is: -100 ELO 7, +100 ELO 8 (match to 15 points)

Move number 4: +100 ELO on roll, cube decision?

-100 ELO	81
+100 ELO	60
Position ID: 27YDAgJ3nWMAAA Match ID: UQngAXAAQAAE

• +100 ELO doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.546	(Money: +0.544)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.762
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.238
3.	No double	+0.682	-0.080
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player +100 ELO owns 2-cube 0.769 0.015 0.000 - 0.231 0.009 0.000 +0.546 +0.682 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.002 0.003 Player -100 ELO owns 4-cube 0.776 0.025 0.000 - 0.224 0.017 0.000 +0.974 +0.762 Standard error 0.001 0.004 0.000 - 0.001 0.003 0.000 0.004 0.007
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
777 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 696544199 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Playing around with the position it seems like -100 ELO can take here with about 18-19%. This is assuming he handles the recubes properly, which he probably won't. Dead cube takepoint is 21.7%.

With 10 PR difference this should be a very clear nodouble, except if you're pretty sure he'll pass.

Messages In This Thread

• Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
  Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 10:43 a.m.
  • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
    Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 11:32 a.m.
    • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 5:54 p.m.
      • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
        Henrik Bukkjaer -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 10:05 p.m.
        • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
          Jake Jacobs -- Tuesday, 20 November 2012, at 1:39 a.m.
  • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
    Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 12:30 p.m.
  • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
    Mr Majestyk -- Monday, 19 November 2012, at 1:45 p.m.
    • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
      Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 20 November 2012, at 9:37 a.m.
      • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
        Mr Majestyk -- Tuesday, 20 November 2012, at 4:10 p.m.
  • Big skill difference, cube adjustment?
    Jake Jacobs -- Tuesday, 20 November 2012, at 2:12 a.m.
  • Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM
    Carlo Melzi -- Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 9:40 a.m.
    • Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM
      Michael Nielsen -- Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 1:32 p.m.
    • Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM
      Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 2:07 p.m.
      • Correction
        Mr Majestyk -- Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 3:36 p.m.