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Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 2:07 p.m.

In Response To: Big skill difference, cube adjustment? - ROLLOUTS and questions for NBM (Carlo Melzi)

Carlo,

Based on my current form, it would be prudent of you to question the reliability/validity of my posts in future. In fact, it would be good practice to bear in mind the health & safety aspect of allowing me the use of crayons and a colouring book. Anyway:

"You estimate a 10 PR difference as a 330 Elo point difference, right? Ok, but what does 17.2% represent? What do I do with that number?"

a). The 17.2% represented the skill difference i.e. 32.8% for the weaker player. What do I think now? I think the weaker players MWC's are 50 - (17.2% * 50%) = 41.4%.

b). I took 17.2% of White's WC's i.e. 17.2 * 25% = 4.3% in the belief I needed a point of reference of estimating how many pips the checker on 18 would need to backtrack to make the decision borderline. All that I had to do then, is to match 4.3% in E-Pips. An E-Pip is worth 0.21 of a pip. With the checker on the 12pt, Blue needs 6 pips to bear in to the 6pt while, White would need 20 pips. Thus 20-6 * 0.21 + 0.5 for each extra crossover. Here, Blue needs 2 crossovers to White's 4 crossovers. The E-Pip total is 3.94.

So what do I think now? I believe it would have made more sense to multiply the weaker player's deficit of 8.6% by her dead cube take point. I.e. 24.76 - (24.76 * 8.6%) = 22.6 and proceed from here.

"This is exactly the borderline point for a take vs pass between equally skilled players. Are you saying that you consider doubling correct for blue as soon as he has reached pass territory?"

For the weaker player in this instance, absolutely not! I'd expect the weaker player to have a take when the checker on 18 shifts to the midpoint or even beyond!

On the whole, this is how I like to work; putting it all on the line. I'm not an advocate of the philosophy: "I don't mind losing, I just don't want to look bad on BGONLINE".

Personally, I love it when I'm on the mat; it motivates me to do better next time. If I never screwed from time to time, I wouldn't learn very much.

Regards,

NBM

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