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The kind of position NTK likes to post

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 5:53 a.m.

In Response To: The kind of position NTK likes to post (neilkaz)

Trailer's dead 2-cube takepoint is 29% ATS, the 2-cube gammon values favor trailer by approx 73% to 47%, and the leader's 4-cube takepoint is 33%. How many g's here? Doesn't look real gammonish for either side but OTB I'd guess around 15% for Blue and 8% for White. The gammon-adjusted takepoint is then 30%. Assuming 70% efficiency, cube vig should be worth 7% so White needs 23% wins to take here.

Does White have a take here? I think so. Should Blue double? There are quite a few market losers here...55,52,51,32, plus 54 or 53 if White doesn't roll an ace. Plus those sequences where Blue enters and White rolls an anti-joker. Looks like enough volatility to me. Cubing also gives the oppt the chance to make a mistake on the take/pass question.

D/T (wouldn't want to bet my life on it though).

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