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OTB and RO's

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 3 December 2012, at 3:36 a.m.

In Response To: The kind of position NTK likes to post (neilkaz)

OTB after some though I evaluated this as a close money pass. Thus with great recube vig, a slightly muted G loss, and no BG fear (if I get hit a bunch attacking). I felt that I had a take here, AtS. I took, and lost a G and match after getting one more checker sent back. At least I won the prop bet.

My AtS equity after taking is -.853 and when we compared that to my cubeless AtS equity after taking, -1.245, we can see what serious recube vig I do have.

		White is Player 1 score: 6 pip: 140 11 point match pip: 122 score: 8 Blue is Player 2
XGID=aB-BBaB------DA--bccbc-B--:0:0:-1:D:6:8:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.791% (G:20.812% B:2.007%)	73.091% (G:21.161% B:3.649%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.209% (G:7.172% B:0.209%)	26.909% (G:7.114% B:0.299%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.6682	+1.2455
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.7914 (-0.0613)	±0.0098 (+0.7816..+0.8013)
Double/Take:	+0.8528	±0.0127 (+0.8400..+0.8655)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000 (+0.1472)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 55 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

For money my cubeless equity after taking is -1.215 compared with the cubeful small pass of -1.025. As we see I have lots more cube equity AtS than for money.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 140 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 122 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=aB-BBaB------DA--bccbc-B--:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	72.833% (G:20.699% B:1.179%)	73.355% (G:20.081% B:1.198%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	27.167% (G:7.203% B:0.130%)	26.645% (G:7.073% B:0.142%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.6021	+1.2155
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.9055 (-0.0945)	±0.0095 (+0.8961..+0.9150)
Double/Take:	+1.0248 (+0.0248)	±0.0125 (+1.0123..+1.0373)
Double/Pass:	+1.0000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 47 minutes 15 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• The kind of position NTK likes to post
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 4:36 a.m.
  • The kind of position NTK likes to post
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 5:53 a.m.
    • The kind of position NTK likes to post
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 8:24 a.m.
    • The kind of position NTK likes to post
      Bob Koca -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 4:36 p.m.
      • The kind of position NTK likes to post
        Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 5:19 p.m.
  • The kind of position NTK likes to post
    higonefive -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 10:12 a.m.
  • The kind of position NTK likes to post
    Sam Pottle -- Sunday, 2 December 2012, at 10:18 a.m.
  • The kind of position NTK likes to post
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 12:23 a.m.
  • The kind of position NTK likes to post
    MandM1951 -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 2:27 a.m.
  • OTB and RO's
    neilkaz -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 3:36 a.m.
    • OTB and RO's
      David Rockwell -- Monday, 3 December 2012, at 4:43 a.m.
      • OTB and RO's
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 4 December 2012, at 3:01 a.m.