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OTB and RO's

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Monday, 3 December 2012, at 4:43 a.m.

In Response To: OTB and RO's (neilkaz)

The recube vig is great here. The numbers assume that you can redouble strongly and that you will redouble strongly. Neil might find the spot. Most of us wouldn't. Here's a sample of the redouble you need to find. If you aren't turning it back on this, you can't take the initial double.





White is Player 1

score: 8
pip: 127
11 point match
pip: 123
score: 6

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aaCBCCB---c------cabb-bB:1:-1:-1:00:8:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.692% (G:24.625% B:0.710%) 51.663% (G:25.208% B:1.170%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.308% (G:12.871% B:1.940%) 48.337% (G:12.028% B:1.584%)
Cubeless Equities +0.2869 +0.7123
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6450 (-0.0673)±0.0038 (+0.6412..+0.6488)
Redouble/Take:+0.7123±0.0053 (+0.7070..+0.7176)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.2877)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 29633147
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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